Ange Saucedo '25
On December 8th, a powerful revolution by Syrian rebels ended Bashar al-Assad’s horrific twenty-four-year-long rule. The opposing side took the capital and forced President al-Assad to flee. The world watched as this overthrow ended a thirteen-year civil war that killed more than half a million people, displaced millions more, and involved international powers.
Why has the Syrian War lasted thirteen years? Before the conflict began, many Syrians complained about high unemployment, corruption, and a lack of political freedom under President Bashar al-Assad.
Then in March 2011, pro-democracy protests erupted, and in response, the Syrian government used deadly force to suppress dissent. Violence rapidly escalated, leading the country into civil war. Eventually, foreign powers began taking sides, providing money, weapons, and fighters.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented 503,064 deaths by March 2023. The group estimated that the actual toll from the war exceeds 613,400, with an additional 55,000 civilians believed to have died from torture in government-run prisons.
These thirteen years of war have inflicted immense suffering on the Syrian people. In addition to the bloodshed, more than half of Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million has been displaced. Approximately 6.8 million are internally displaced, with over 2 million living in tented camps with limited access to necessities.
Another 6 million are refugees or asylum seekers abroad. Much of Syria’s rich cultural heritage has also been destroyed. A UN Commission of Inquiry concluded that the warring parties "have cumulatively committed almost every crime against humanity...and nearly every war crime applicable in a non-international armed conflict."
Bashar al-Assad played a central role in the protracted and devastating civil war. In 2011, he responded to peaceful protests during the Arab Spring with brutal crackdowns. His family's regime bombed and detained thousands of opposition fighters, establishing fearsome internal security agencies to suppress unrest.
This week, as the rebels advanced, they took control of many notorious prisons where the Assad regime had imprisoned, tortured, and executed political opponents for decades. As rebels captured Damascus on December 8th, the president fled to Russia.
The main rebel group behind Assad’s removal is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Initially linked to the Islamic State and then to Al-Qaeda, the group began shedding its extremist roots by mid-2016. Its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, stated that his primary goal was to “liberate Syria from this oppressive regime.”
Since breaking ties with Al-Qaeda, Mr. al-Jolani and his group have sought international legitimacy by focusing on organized governance in Syria rather than global jihadist ambitions.
What’s next for Syria? There are many more questions than answers, starting with an uncertain future for the nation’s governance, security, and economy. Experts say the pace of recovery will depend on how much political stability the new leaders can provide.
Meanwhile, the U.S. acknowledges the new risks an uncertain government poses. It is not only vulnerable for Syria but also regarding the role it will occupy as a power, especially as a new U.S. administration begins.
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